2.4 Likelihood of occurrence assessment For all conservation significant species identified in the desktop search, a likelihood of occurrence assessment was conducted to determine their likelihood of occurrence within the study area. Likelihood of occurrence was assigned to one of five possible categories: (1) Confirmed present, (2) Likely to occur, (3) Potential to occur, (4) Unlikely to occur or (5) Highly unlikely to occur. For each species, the likelihood of occurrence assessment was based on the results of desktop and field surveys considering factors including: – Whether the species was detected within the project area during field surveys – The quality and abundance of the species’ habitat observed within the project area – The proximity and age of the nearest historical records – Consideration of information on recent changes in the species distribution or regional threats that could influence the likelihood of occurrence – Consideration of life history characteristics that may require increased conservatism in the assessment to account for species that are cryptic, transient or periodically dormant that were not recorded but may have reduced detectability (e.g. orchids, migratory species or cryptic reptiles). A decision framework was used to standardise the likelihood of occurrence assessment, as shown in Table 2-4. Results of the likelihood of occurrence assessment are presented in Appendix B. Traffic light colouration has been used to draw attention to species that have an increased likelihood of occurrence, and thereby warrant assessment to identify, avoid and mitigate impacts on those species. Only species Confirmed present, Likely to occur or Potential to occur are recommended for inclusion in subsequent impact assessment and reporting. The decision framework for guiding the likelihood of occurrence assessment is detailed in Table 2-4.
Table 2-4
Likelihood of occurrence framework
Likelihood
Decision framework
Implications for assessment and reporting
Species has been recorded within the project area during field surveys.
Confirmed present
Subsequent reporting These species area recommended for inclusion in subsequent reporting to: – Assess and map species habitat –
There are recent (within 10 years) and nearby (within 10km) historical records of the species AND suitable high-quality habitat present within the project area. There are older (10 - 20 years) and more regional (10 - 30km) historical records of the species AND suitable low to moderate quality habitat present within the project area. There are no nearby or regional historical records of the species and the species was not detected in field surveys BUT suitable moderate or high- quality habitat is present within the project area AND the species has life history characteristics that warrant increased conservatism in likelihood assessment (i.e. cryptic species or species with temporal or spatial dynamism such as transient, wide-ranging species or species that are dormant for extended periods). The species is unlikely to occur in the project area but has a reasonable likelihood of occurring immediately adjacent and should be included in impact assessment due to the potential for indirect impacts on the species. The species has been historically recorded locally or regionally; however, no suitable habitat occurs within the project area, and the species has
Likely to occur (High likelihood)
Define key ecological features including important populations and habitat critical to the survival of the species
Potential to occur (Moderate – Low likelihood)
–
Assess species-specific impacts
–
Identify avoidance and mitigation measures
–
Undertake significance of impact assessments on residual impacts
–
Provide offsets for any significant residual impact
Inclusion in likelihood of occurrence reporting only
Unlikely to occur
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