8.3 Risk Analysis and Evaluation The purpose of risk analysis is to comprehend the nature of risk and its characteristics, including, where appropriate, the level of risk. Risk analysis can be undertaken with varying degrees of detail and complexity, depending on the purpose of the analysis, the availability and reliability of information and the resources available. Risk analysis techniques can be qualitative, quantitative or a combination of these and should include: ∕ The likelihood of events and consequences; ∕ The nature and magnitude of consequences; ∕ Complexity and connectivity; ∕ Time-related factors and volatility; ∕ The effectiveness of existing controls; and ∕ Sensitivity and confidence levels. Identified risks were classified in accordance with Heritage Mineral’s risk classification schema which is described below. The risk assessment schema used is comparable to those used widely within the mining industry and comprises the following components: ∕ Likelihood classification descriptors (Table 67); and ∕ Consequence classification descriptors (Table 68). Following a determination of likelihood and consequence, the risk level was determined using the matrix shown in Table 69. For any risks classified as ‘significant’ or above, mitigation and management measures were identified and documented, including reporting and monitoring requirements where relevant. Mitigation and management measures were also documented for some lower-level risks. Table 67. Likelihood of Exposure of Hazard
Level of risk probability
Probability
Frequency
1 – Almost certain
>80%
Is expected to occur
2 – Likely
33% - 80%
Will probably occur in most
3 – Possible
5% - 33%
Should occur at some time
4 – Unlikely
1% - 5%
Could occur at some time
5 – Rare
<1%
May occur only once in 5 years
Project number: 25B061
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